The question at hand is how a wrestler's draw (number of entry) affects his (occasionally, her) chances of winning the Rumble match or at least lasting for a long time.
The WWE never tires to remind us that number 27 is the magic number for Rumble success - 4 Rumble winners have entered the Royal Rumble match as the 27th entrant (Big John Studd in 1989, Yokozuna in 1993, Bret Hart in 1994 and Stone Cold Steve Austin in 2001). 2001? Ok, number 27 does seem to be experiencing a bit of a dry spell these past 16 years ...
Furthermore, while technically each has produced 'only' two Rumble winners, numbers 1 and 2 really can be counted as one because both wrestlers 1 and 2 start the Rumble match at the same time (duh ...). Hence, could it be that one should hope to be among the first two wrestlers in a Rumble match?
Let's look at how long a wrestler can be expected to last based on his number of entry. The following graph depicts at which position each draw (from 1 to 30) can be expected (on average) to be eliminated from the Rumble match. E.g. draw number 5 is expected to last until the sixth elimination.
Takeaways:
- You see the wrestling magic right there at the top of the graph: Numbers 1 and 2, on average, last until the tenth/eleventh elimination! So in the WWE you would want to trade every number between 3 and 10 for a starting spot. But you should prefer number 11 and onwards to the starting gig.
- All other draws (3 and onwards) follow a very linear pattern where the higher you get the better you're off. It is funny to note, though, that there is a noticeable dent for entry number 27 casting more doubt on the notion of it being the magic Rumble number. Based on these results you should prefer numbers 25 and 26 over number 27.
- If you can, go with number 30! Number 30, on average, means that you'll last the longest in the Rumble. Three people have won the Rumble from number 30: Undertaker in 2007, John Cena in 2008 and Triple H in 2016. Take that, 27!
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