Royal Rumble: STUD or DUD? The top and flop performers.

Again, let's look at every data-focused person's favourite WWE event, the Royal Rumble!

This post is focused on finding Royal Rumble studs ... and duds. Only wrestlers who have participated in at least five Rumble matches are considered because we really want to focus on Rumble regulars here.

Speaking of Rumble regulars, Kane has entered 16 Rumble matches. Sixteen! He has also eliminated a record of 40 other wrestlers. But to no avail - Kane has never won the Royal Rumble. 👿

People who have won the Royal Rumble more than once (instant STUDs, I guess): Steve Austin (3), Triple H (2), Randy Orton (2), Batista (2), Hulk Hogan (2), Shawn Michaels (2), John Cena (2) ... holy cow, Evolution is likely the only wrestling stable in history where every member had already won or would go on to win the Royal Rumble.

(Bad) Luck of the draw

• Mr. Bad Luck (DUD): CM Punk has entered 6 Rumble matches and won none of them. This might have been due to his bad luck with the draw. On average, CM Punk entered the Rumble match at position 8. Randomness would have you enter at position 15 on average. Poor Punk!
• Mr. Luck (STUD): Batista has participated in 5 Rumble matches and won two of them. No wonder as his average entry number has been number 24! He was booed out of the arena in 2014 anyway.

How lang can you survive?

• Marathon men (STUD): While Chris Jericho has spent an impressive 4 hours and 51 minutes overall in Royal Rumble matches, Steve Austin - having entered five Rumble matches, and winning an impressive three - has averaged 30 minutes in Rumble matches.
• Not very long (DUD): Farooq has entered 5 Rumble matches and spent a total of 12 minutes in the ring. Ouch! However, Farooq still averages about two and a half minutes per Rumble match. That's half a minute more than The Great Khali!

How many opponents can you eliminate?

• Not that many, actually (DUD): While he did participate in 6 Rumble matches, Jack Swagger has yet to eliminate somebody!
• Beast (STUD): Steve Austin eliminates an incredible 7 opponents per Rumble! While Kane does hold the record for alltime eliminations, it took him 16 Rumbles to get there. Kane's average is actually 2.5 eliminations (same as Randy Orton's, by the way).

Efficiency: How many opponents can you eliminate per ten minutes?

• Mr. Efficiency (STUD): Oh SWERVE! The Great Khali eliminates 6 people per ten minutes. Only problem is that he never lasted more than 7 minutes in a Rumble match! The true Mr. Efficiency is Big Show who has spent a respectable 72 minutes in Rumble matches and eliminates 4 people per ten minutes (Steve Austin, by comparison, eliminates 2 opponents per ten minutes)!
• Forget about it (DUD): Well, Jack Swagger has never eliminated anybody so he 'wins' this by default. However, the 'runner-up' is The Miz who eliminates an opponent every 60 minutes! Wow, that is brutal. Big Show eliminates 24 people for Miz's 1. Looking at these guys, that does not sound unreasonable, actually. 

Honorable(?) mention: Roman Reigns has not yet participated in 5 Royal Rumble matches but he has to be mentioned here. Man, yeah, he is THE GUY, we get it. We really do! The pace at which Reigns is going should see him breaking various Rumble records! He has eliminated 26 people in 4 Rumbles (putting him slightly behind Austin in terms of average eliminations) already ...

Rumble draws and success chances

There is no WWE PPV more suited for intensive data analysis than the Royal Rumble!

The question at hand is how a wrestler's draw (number of entry) affects his (occasionally, her) chances of winning the Rumble match or at least lasting for a long time.

The WWE never tires to remind us that number 27 is the magic number for Rumble success - 4 Rumble winners have entered the Royal Rumble match as the 27th entrant (Big John Studd in 1989, Yokozuna in 1993, Bret Hart in 1994 and Stone Cold Steve Austin in 2001). 2001? Ok, number 27 does seem to be experiencing a bit of a dry spell these past 16 years ...
Furthermore, while technically each has produced 'only' two Rumble winners, numbers 1 and 2 really can be counted as one because both wrestlers 1 and 2 start the Rumble match at the same time (duh ...). Hence, could it be that one should hope to be among the first two wrestlers in a Rumble match?

Let's look at how long a wrestler can be expected to last based on his number of entry. The following graph depicts at which position each draw (from 1 to 30) can be expected (on average) to be eliminated from the Rumble match. E.g. draw number 5 is expected to last until the sixth elimination.

Takeaways:

• You see the wrestling magic right there at the top of the graph: Numbers 1 and 2, on average, last until the tenth/eleventh elimination! So in the WWE you would want to trade every number between 3 and 10 for a starting spot. But you should prefer number 11 and onwards to the starting gig.
• All other draws (3 and onwards) follow a very linear pattern where the higher you get the better you're off. It is funny to note, though, that there is a noticeable dent for entry number 27 casting more doubt on the notion of it being the magic Rumble number. Based on these results you should prefer numbers 25 and 26 over number 27.
• If you can, go with number 30! Number 30, on average, means that you'll last the longest in the Rumble. Three people have won the Rumble from number 30: Undertaker in 2007, John Cena in 2008 and Triple H in 2016. Take that, 27!